About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Showing posts with label stock market news. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market news. Show all posts

Tuesday 15 March 2016

Dollar Strength to Return?

Yet another FED day has come and gone, the dollar has been trending down and is approaching oversold levels and could trigger a risk off trade near term, here's how to play this:

1) Dollar Strength:

The dollar is oversold and is likely to bounce from oversold levels and strengthen against the Euro: 

Can play this via the Ultralong Dollar ETF UUP: 

PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP)

 2) This should trigger a selloff in commodities like gold, oil and base metals which are overbought: 

Can play this via the ultra short basic materials ETF SMN: 

ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials (SMN)

 3) The Volatility picture remains complacent suggesting a surge in volatility post the fed. 

Can play it via the ultra long ETF on volatility UVXY: 

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY)

 4) This could trigger a selloff in stocks, with the S & P 500 breaking down out of a massive rising wedge on the long term charts courtesy stocktwits.com: 


 Can play this via ultra short ETF’s

5) Collapsing High Yield:

A high yield collapse is just around the corner and can be played via the ultra short ETF SJB:

ProShares Short High Yield (SJB)

Wednesday 21 October 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from global financial markets-3

1)Just 1pc of fund managers have beaten the stock market since Black Monday - Telegraph

A fund that aims to mirror Warren Buffett’s investment style has beaten the
FTSE since Black Monday, but the vast majority of active funds have lagged
behind"

2)The skew view - the latest signal of stock-market doom? - Reuters

Wall Street is forever on the lookout for ever more exotic indicators of impending doom for the stock market, and the latest measure to catch eyeballs is the CBOE Skew index .SKEWX which recently flashed panic signals like never before."

3) 38 Images of The 2015 Stock Market Crash

During the August 2015 stock market crash, markets around the world dropped significantly. What was the cause? The media blames China, but were they?"











4) Stock market crash sets new records in 1987 - New York Daily News

Stock market crashes in 1987, under a selling avalanche of over half a billion shares, as traders recalled the Great Crash of 1929."



















5) 3 Reasons Stock Market Corrections Are Inevitable - Motley Fool

You may not want the stock market to fall, but it's only a matter of time."

6) Deflation's least-understood danger is also its most serious

The world is grievously underestimating the danger of deflation."

Here are some more interesting market news and views. 

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.